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Deflation is coming and you can't run from it

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posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 04:45 PM
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Yes it is. Going to be a rough year for the perma bulls.

Retailers in China slash iPhone prices


SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Several Chinese electronics retailers including Alibaba-backed Suning (002024.SZ) and JD.com (JD.O) have slashed iPhone prices this week, after Apple (AAPL.O) recently blamed poor sales of the smartphone in the country for a rare revenue warning.


Yes this is China but this will hit the DOW on Monday. That's a for sure bet.

Vancouver housing market


VANCOUVER—Metro Vancouver housing starts were down sharply in 2018, but analysts say the decrease marks a return to “normal” market conditions as the region’s overheated real estate market slows.

Housing starts for 2018 are down 11 per cent for Metro Vancouver overall, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. In Vancouver, housing starts dipped 26 per cent compared to 2017 numbers, and are down 27 per cent in Surrey.


As housing market slows, builders are offering buyer discounts


Companies large and small are paying closing costs, buying down mortgage rates and trimming square footage to offer a cheaper abode. Some are countering the high cost of a mortgage with a more direct method — outright lowering prices on newly built homes.



A John Burns Real Estate Consulting survey found that in December, 23% of builders lowered net prices, which would include list price reductions, as well as incentives such as money toward an upgraded wood floor that consumers previously would’ve had to buy. A year earlier, only 4% dropped prices.


Key indicator's to follow;

Personal finance 2018; credit crunch


Elite Personal Finance conducted a study on the average credit card debt in America in 2019. We have analyzed the data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve and other official sources in depth, which resulted in a detailed and advanced statistics on the average credit card debt in America 2019.


Read this full report for analysis. I already know 95% of members will not read a single source, link that source and counter a point decisively so I know I'm wasting my time offering this analysis.

Dare to prove me wrong.

Corporate debt crisis in 2019


At first glance, 2019 might look like a quiet year for distressed-debt investors, judging by the small list of troubled bonds coming due. But the light schedule may be obscuring how quickly some issuers will unravel.


This article gives a great breakdown of the information. However unlike normal I'm not going to include it in this thread. If you actually want to participate on a level that's not ad hom or offer qualitative analysis and contribute to the value of the forums (hint: most of you aren't here for that anymore) click the link and add the quote to the thread.

Anyway. Can't wait to see what happens Monday.




posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 04:47 PM
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This is what they've been trying to accomplish with the rate hikes at the Fed.

We shall see. Deflation is great for savings, not so much for everything else.



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 04:48 PM
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originally posted by: projectvxn
This is what they've been trying to accomplish with the rate hikes at the Fed.

We shall see. Deflation is great for savings, not so much for everything else.


I'm actually not sure what the Fed is trying to accomplish at this point because inflation was flat last year and they kept raising rates anyway.

Raising interest rates is suppose to be a tool to slow inflation down not cause deflation.
edit on 11-1-2019 by toysforadults because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 04:50 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

Deflation. Seems like all the CBs are pitching for deflation. I have to wonder if this will be measured deflation, or out of control deflation.

We'll see.



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 04:51 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

You raise interest rate fast enough and in large enough amounts you can certainly burn a lot of cash real quick.



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 04:53 PM
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originally posted by: projectvxn
a reply to: toysforadults

Deflation. Seems like all the CBs are pitching for deflation. I have to wonder if this will be measured deflation, or out of control deflation.

We'll see.


yeah see here's the thing though, I believe that they are disconnected from average America.

they are so busy crunching numbers that they are not in fact making their choices based on how it affects individual households but they are reacting to the market on a macro level and this is where the flaw begins.

They are so disconnected from everyone they don't know what's happening in the real world anymore.

This is one of the major flaws in a centrally planned economy.
edit on 11-1-2019 by toysforadults because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 04:54 PM
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originally posted by: projectvxn
a reply to: toysforadults

You raise interest rate fast enough and in large enough amounts you can certainly burn a lot of cash real quick.


That's how we got here in the first place.



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 04:55 PM
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Well, the can was kicked down the road in 2008, so here we are. Personally, I'm a fan of deflation... but I'm not an investor, I'm but a saver. From a non-credit using consumer's perspective, deflation is a wonderful thing.



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 04:58 PM
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originally posted by: burdman30ott6
Well, the can was kicked down the road in 2008, so here we are. Personally, I'm a fan of deflation... but I'm not an investor, I'm but a saver. From a non-credit using consumer's perspective, deflation is a wonderful thing.


I actually totally agree with you. We NEED a deflationary period. We have for a while. If there was a solid correction and the Fed didn't rescue all the bad investments then maybe we could have a shot at a stable economy again.

The strength of the dollar presents it's own problems but overall I agree with you.



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 04:58 PM
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The apple cult following is cracking.
About time.

And people have been over paying for homes for a while now, its bound to bite them in the butt eventually.

Autos are next.
$75k for a fricken truck.....hell no.



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 04:58 PM
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originally posted by: Bluntone22
The apple cult following is cracking.
About time.

And people have been over paying for homes for a while now, its bound to bite them in the butt eventually.

Autos are next.
$75k for a fricken truck.....hell no.


Yup, exactly. The problem start with the bailouts in 08. They shouldn't have bailed anyone out and let the assets crash. Slower stronger growth, we would be in a much better position right now.



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 05:01 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

Bush jr warned about the housing bubble but nobody listened.



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 05:05 PM
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a reply to: Bluntone22

I was kinda young when it happened but due to the lasting impact it's had on my age group I decided to really dig into why and what happened and what went wrong.



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 05:10 PM
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originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: Bluntone22

I was kinda young when it happened but due to the lasting impact it's had on my age group I decided to really dig into why and what happened and what went wrong.


I was in my late 20s and JUUUUUUST about to buy a house when it all went down, thank god i dodged that bullet.......not sure were gonna dodge this one though.........



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 05:11 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

Oh the reason is easy.
People are stupid.
The banks made it easy for them to be stupid.




posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 05:11 PM
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a reply to: ManBehindTheMask

I was in my early 20's selling stock shares, lost everything



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 05:19 PM
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originally posted by: Bluntone22
a reply to: toysforadults

Oh the reason is easy.
People are stupid.
The banks made it easy for them to be stupid.



that's a big problem



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 05:29 PM
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originally posted by: toysforadults

originally posted by: projectvxn
This is what they've been trying to accomplish with the rate hikes at the Fed.

We shall see. Deflation is great for savings, not so much for everything else.


I'm actually not sure what the Fed is trying to accomplish at this point because inflation was flat last year and they kept raising rates anyway.

Raising interest rates is suppose to be a tool to slow inflation down not cause deflation.


They were / are trying to destroy the Trump economy to help with Midterms and 2020. Globalists don't like Trump and they especially don't want a strong U.S. economy since they are actively trying to destroy predominantly European countries as a precursor to increasing their Global control of all humanity.



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 05:29 PM
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A lot of people are still renting so they will only feel the ~3% annual increase at their lease expiration.
$300 of additional interest per year for revolving credit won't stop people from spending either.
If consumers are putting off purchases because they expect lower prices in the future that could cause a snowballing deflation effect. There was an MIT analyst named Xie who claims this could happen in China back in 2016 but this isn't 1929.
I use the Harbor Freight index, prices for Chinese tools have remained flat since 2008.



posted on Jan, 11 2019 @ 05:32 PM
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a reply to: Slichter

rofl, the harbor freight index that's hilarious







 
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